Think the next election’s result is certain? Think again. UK polls have a history of being wrong. Here are 20 times UK polls were way off.
1. 1970 General Election
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Polls predicted a comfortable Labour victory; however, Edward Heath’s Conservatives won, leading to a major upset and questions about polling accuracy.
2. 1992 General Election
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John Major’s Conservative government was expected to lose to Labour. Polls were so far off that this event prompted a major overhaul in polling methods.
3. 2010 General Election
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Polls suggested a clear Conservative majority, but the result was a hung parliament, leading to the first coalition government since the Second World War.
4. 2015 General Election
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Almost all polls predicted another hung parliament, yet David Cameron’s Conservatives secured a surprising outright majority.
5. Brexit Referendum, 2016
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On the eve of the referendum, many polls and bookmakers suggested a narrow victory for Remain. The Leave outcome shocked the world and had profound implications.
6. 2017 General Election
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Theresa May called an early election expecting to increase her majority based on strong polling. Instead, she lost her majority, resulting in a weakened government.
7. Scottish Independence Referendum, 2014
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While polls increasingly tightened towards the vote, the final outcome for ‘No’ was more decisive than many polls suggested.
8. London Mayoral Election, 2012
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Polls predicted a close race between Boris Johnson and Ken Livingstone; however, Johnson won more comfortably than expected.
9. 2004 European Parliament Elections
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Polls did not anticipate the extent of Labour’s losses, nor the surge for UKIP, marking a significant shift in British politics towards Euroscepticism.
10. 2015 Labour Leadership Election
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Jeremy Corbyn’s landslide victory in the Labour leadership contest was not foreseen by most political commentators or polls.
11. 2016 Conservative Leadership Election
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After David Cameron’s resignation, polls favoured Boris Johnson or Michael Gove; neither made it to the ballot, with Theresa May becoming PM.
12. 2019 European Parliament Elections
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The Brexit Party, led by Nigel Farage, exceeded poll expectations, becoming the single largest party from the UK in the European Parliament.
13. 2019 General Election
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Polls underestimated the scale of Boris Johnson’s victory, which provided him with a substantial majority to “get Brexit done.”
14. Liberal Democrats in the 2015 General Election
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Polls failed to predict the scale of the disaster for the Lib Dems, who were reduced from 57 to just 8 seats.
15. UKIP’s Performance in 2015
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Despite strong polling, UKIP only managed to secure one MP, highlighting discrepancies between vote share and seat allocation.
16. The Rise of the SNP in 2015
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While an SNP surge was expected in Scotland, the scale of their victory, winning 56 of 59 seats, was not well anticipated by polls.
17. 2017 Labour Comeback
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Polls initially predicted a historic defeat for Labour under Jeremy Corbyn; however, they ended up gaining seats and stripping the Tories of their majority.
18. Green Party Surge in 2019
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The Greens’ performance in the 2019 European Elections exceeded most poll predictions, reflecting a growing environmental consciousness among voters.
19. 2021 London Mayoral Election
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Sadiq Khan was predicted to win easily, yet the margin was narrower than expected, showcasing the challenge of gauging voter sentiment in local elections.
20. Conservative Leadership, 2022
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Liz Truss was predicted to bring stability to the Tories; instead, her short tenure was marked by economic turmoil, which led to her resignation after just six weeks.
Beware the Polls
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With such a track record, it’s wise to take polling with a grain of salt. As we look towards the next general election, it’s worth asking: could the unexpected happen yet again?
The post From Surprise to Uncertainty: 20 Instances When UK Polls Failed to Reflect Reality first appeared on LoveLists.
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For transparency, this content was partly developed with AI assistance and carefully curated by an experienced editor to be informative and ensure accuracy.